Hume and Induction...

Trippy discussions of moral issues, conspiracy theories, the paranormal and other otherworldly phenomenon.

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Postby TerraFrost » Sun Apr 20, 2003 12:58 am

It'd be nice to hear any kind of response...


yeah...

my guess is that giga's probably just gonna write his essay, and that'll be that. i don't know if he'll post it or not, but...

Hehehe, when I write my paper I'm going to make sure ideas that weren't mine are marked as not mine, but by people's on-line names. I, personally, don't have any interest in stealing other peoples' ideas and I plan on using everybody's "screen names" if I use their ideas in the paper. I'll have to start writing it first, though, before I know how much I've got to pad it with other ideas, yes?


i wouldn't want my ideas to be presented if they weren't understood... otherwise, they would almost be, if not completly be misrepresented. i clarify my ideas in my later posts, but... if my clarifications aren't gonna be read, then they obviously have no chance of being understood.

now granted, i could be wrong, but unless i spontaniously come to some sort of surprising revalation, it seems as if i would need someone else to show me that i'm wrong for me to realize that. and as i don't realize that right now, then... the only other possilibity that remains is my being misrepresented, and... blah.
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Postby Gigafrost » Sun Apr 20, 2003 1:15 am

Basically, the biggest problem was that it wasn't attacking my ideas, but that said, there have been 2 ideas presented in the overall discussion that I plan on talking about in the paper.

There's some of your talk about statistics. Particularly, I plan on talking about how not all inductions use PUN, similar to what you came to, but I also plan on showing how trying to come to a result by statistics is also not depending on PUN. I don't think you quite covered that...at least not in the way I'm looking to present it.

I want to show that if you have 8 out of 10 instances where something happened, then regardless of whether that thing happens again or not, the data still leans in the favor of the thing that happened again, because either way it'll either be 8/11 or 9/11...

but blah

The other was going down the path of the definition of "reliable"...
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Postby TerraFrost » Sun Apr 20, 2003 1:30 am

oh... so i guess you did read our replies :)

like nyufrost said, tohugh, hehe - any reply would have been better than none :lila:

anyways... good luck with it, and just be sure to post the final thing here :)

(although it might be a good idea to close it after you post it, maybe... i dunno)
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Postby TerraFrost » Tue Apr 29, 2003 11:53 pm

so did you ever type this paper up and turn it in? if so, i'd like to read it :)
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Postby Gigafrost » Wed Apr 30, 2003 12:55 am

Oh yeah...hehehe...I keep thinking about it every few days, but keep forgetting... ^.^;;
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Postby Dracofrost » Wed Apr 30, 2003 1:19 am

That's an intresting paper, Giga. Good job on it.:thumbs: Hope it got graded well and whatnot...
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Postby TerraFrost » Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:07 am

i haven't read all of it yet, but... i have edited your post to remove the ssn from your attachment ;)

only one person downloaded the original, other than me (i assume that other person was draco), so... no harm done :)
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Postby Gigafrost » Wed Apr 30, 2003 11:59 am

Oops! ^.^;; Thanks for doing that...hehehe...it sorta slipped my mind...
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Postby TerraFrost » Sun Sep 28, 2003 6:48 am

to revive an old thread, hehe, i found this interesting...

Laplace (if he isn't talked about in M408D, he's talked about in M427K) suggested that the probability that something would happen that we had no deductive reason to assume would happen was (d + 1) / (d + 2), where d is equal to the number of days it has happened, in the past. at d=0, that would be 50%, then 66%, 75%, and so on...

you can sorta read about it here:
http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Simon_Laplace

EDIT: an alternative formula would be one like this...

(d + 1) / (d + n), where d was the number of previous times it had happened, and n was the number of possible things that could happen. for example, if you were going to say the sky will be blue tomorrow... would there be a 50% probability of that, that only accounts for it being either true or false, or would the probability depend on the number of other possibilities? i'm not actually sure which one would be more accurate, however.

also, one problem with both formulas is that they don't account for how many days the sun didn't rise... i can't think of a formula that could do that, off the top of my head, but maybe, when i have more time, i'll come up with one :)
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